The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.
The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.
Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.
Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.
Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.
The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.
Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.
This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.
The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.
While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.
Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.
Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.
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