Just 48 hours prior to the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.
He released his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.
How was your night?
I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.
Understand, there was a world in which election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and massively expanded his support from the first round.
Where did the mayor-elect gain those extra votes from?
He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. Victory required without making those significant inroads.
He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability
Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?
It is a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year went for the progressive now. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.
A major development of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?
Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.
You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?
Right now it appears he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he does so then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.
Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.
He lost a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held very white areas, very wealthy areas and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I believe there was significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance failed to expand.
Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?
I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the property owners and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there was some opposition. However no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.
In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?
Exist neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.
Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?
Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.
However I think that each urban center in America could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.
A seasoned software engineer with a passion for open-source projects and tech education.
